"This could become very dangerous now because Israel will quickly press ahead with a unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon," says TIME Jerusalem bureau chief Lisa Beyer. "And, of course, if Israel comes under attack from Hezbollah in the course of that retreat, or after, it has made clear that its response will be a lot harsher than in previous exchanges. And that, in turn, could potentially spark a new war with Syria."
Israel — and the U.S. — had hoped to conclude a land-for-peace deal with Syria before the ailing, 71-year-old Assad leaves office, for fear that a successor may lack the strongman's authority to make security concessions to the Jewish state in exchange for the return of captured territory. But Sunday's failure to secure any agreement means that it might well be left to Syria's next leader to chart the way to peace with Israel. Chances of an early breakthrough may be diminished by Israel's Lebanon withdrawal — which deprives Syria, with its substantial military control over Lebanon, of a key bargaining chip — as well as by Bill Clinton's imminent departure from the Oval Office. Despite the dangers created by a power vacuum in southern Lebanon, both Israel and Syria are likely to be careful to keep any escalation of hostilities within manageable limits. "Assad appears uninterested in peace on the terms Israel has offered," says Beyer. "But that doesn't mean he wants a war, and he'll work as hard as the Israelis will to avoid being drawn into one."