A John McCain campaign leaflet circulated throughout South Carolina this week reads: "Join John McCain's Fight. Republicans, Independents and Democrats Can and Should Vote." This is the "Fourth Way" campaign John McCain is waging — and a signal to GOP leaders that the Arizona senator may be their best bet in the November general election. Most polls have McCain and George W. Bush in a dead heat among likely South Carolina voters heading into Saturday's Republican primary. Bush is enjoying a comfortable lead among registered Republicans, and McCain is hoping that 100,000 more voters — mostly independents and Democrats — will show up at the open primary's polls than did in 1996.
How quickly the race has turned. South Carolina has become a must-win for the Bush camp, while a close loss for McCain means his candidacy is still viable. A victory for Bush is needed both to restore his momentum heading into the Feb. 22 Arizona and Michigan primaries and to revive the faith in his candidacy that led the party establishment to invest in it so heavily. "If McCain can win South Carolina and then Michigan you're going to see a very different picture with more Bush supporters defecting to McCain," says TIME Washington correspondent Karen Tumulty.
Of concern to both Bush and the party is that his national appeal has been damaged in his attempt to curry favor among conservatives in South Carolina. While Bush campaigns on the centrist-tinged platform of "compassionate conservatism," his right-leaning tour through the Palmetto State — including a controversial appearance at Bob Jones University, which bans interracial dating — has left McCain standing tall in the center and Bush pushed to the fringes. In addition, the latest polls show McCain with a much greater chance of defeating Al Gore or Bill Bradley in November. "You can already see others in the GOP acknowledging McCain's ability to appeal to moderates and independents." Says Tumulty. "Republicans in the House and Senate are now reaching out to McCain's playbook by toning down their tax bill. While last year they called for drastic tax cuts, now they're using McCain's approach to seeking 'targeted tax cuts'." Even if Bush wins on Saturday, it still looks as though he faces an uphill battle to reestablish what once was his greatest asset -- his November electability.