Why Germany's CDU Woes Are Bad News

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With the opposition Christian Democratic Union rocked by scandals and searching for a new leader, things seem to be going well for Germany's Social Democratic Party. Perhaps too well. The Social Democrats rode the wave of the centrist "Third Way" politics that swept Western Europe in the late 90s to wrest control from the CDU in 1998 and end Helmut Kohl's 15-year reign as chancellor. Now Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is enjoying high approval ratings and the weakened CDU isn't even opposing the Social Democrats in two key upcoming state elections. But the Social Democrats' top brass weren't gloating Wednesday when CDU chief Wolfgang Schaeuble resigned over the campaign-funding scandal centered around Kohl. The $20 million fine levied at the CDU for the fund-raising improprieties could bankrupt the party — and that could mean unrest in the entire political system.

In particular, observers are concerned that a political vacuum on the conservative side of German politics could be a breeding ground for the rise of the right wing — something that has been happening in Europe's other German-speaking nations. The right-wing Swiss People's Party recently gained 20 percent of the Swiss vote, while Jrg Haider's ultra-conservative Freedom Party in January rose to co-ruler in Austria's coalition government. Even Schroeder has tried to drum up support for the CDU, warning that if the party dissolves, Germany's democratic balance will be thrown out of whack. While Schaueble's decision to step down as party chairman (the CDU hasn't named a successor yet) is a good first step toward restoring faith in the party, pols on both sides of the aisle are counting on a sustained rebound.