The Real Reasons Bauer Backed McCain

It wasn't necessarily a tight convergence of political beliefs that led conservative former presidential candidate Gary Bauer to endorse John McCain over George W. Bush. "Bauer really dislikes Bush," says TIME correspondent Steve Lopez, who is following the campaigns in South Carolina. "During the New Hampshire debates, McCain and Bauer forged some sort of alliance — based primarily on their opposition to Bush's campaign." TIME political correspondent John Dickerson, also on the road in South Carolina, sees Bauer's choice as a not-so-subtle poke at rival Christian conservatives. "There's a deep-seated tension between the Ralph ReedPat Robertson wing of the Christian right and the Gary Bauer wing," says Dickerson. "Bauer sees Reed and Robertson as promoting a caricature of social conservatism, and he wants to break from that." Bauer threw his weight behind McCain, Dickerson adds, in response to Reed and Robertson's attempt to tear the senator down. Bauer also believes, says Dickerson, that McCain has a better chance of beating Al Gore in November.

Whatever the motivation, Bauer's endorsement, while hardly a monumental event in McCain's campaign, needs to be handled carefully by the Arizona senator. In conservative, upcountry South Carolina, Bauer is an asset, but the arch-conservative's stamp of approval could do more harm than good once the campaigns leave the South behind. In Michigan, particularly, McCain will want to come across as a true centrist; after all, he'll be courting the Grosse Pointe Republican contingent, who blanch at overtly conservative language on social issues like abortion. As long as McCain loosens his affiliation with Bauer after South Carolina, says Lopez, he shouldn't have any trouble stepping back into the moderate role as he heads West.

In fact, both candidates need to quickly shroud their ultra-conservative overtures once they leave the Palmetto State. Bush, in particular, has made earnest overtures to the far right while in South Carolina, says Lopez, and these efforts to secure a victory there could cost him dearly later. "Bush went to the head of the class with his visit to Bob Jones University," says Lopez. The university embraces staunchly right-wing (some would say racist) rhetoric, which Bush didn't address on his trip to the school. That sort of miscue won't play well in California or New York — and Bush has been backtracking since his Bob Jones appearance, claiming the visit was meant to emphasize his "compassionate" side. We'll see if voters agree — it's clear that Gary Bauer doesn't.