"Syria has the ability to shut down Hezbollah, but with no sign of movement in talks with Israel over the Golan Heights, it may have had little incentive to do that," says TIME Middle East bureau chief Scott MacLeod. "Hezbollah is raising the temperature because wants to boost its political standing in Lebanon by claiming victory from any Israeli withdrawal, proclaiming itself the first Arab party to have ever driven Israel from Arab territory." There's an element of truth to Hezbollah's claim, in the sense that the steady stream of casualties it has inflicted on Israel over the years has left the Israeli electorate overwhelmingly in favor of withdrawing from Lebanon. But while it would have the guerrillas crowing victory, a unilateral Israeli withdrawal would leave Syria in the lurch. "Syria doesn't want Israel out of Lebanon before an agreement on the Golan Heights, because guaranteeing Israeli security there is one of Syria's prime bargaining chips," says MacLeod. Still, with Hezbollah now expected to fire rockets into Israel itself in retaliation for the bombing — despite Israel's warning that it would respond with even heavier bombing — Israel may find it difficult to retreat in the short term.
Bombings Threaten to Lock Israel Into Lebanon
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The bombs may be for appearances' sake; Israel wants to hightail it out of Lebanon as soon as possible — but symbolic retaliation has a habit of running away with itself. The Israeli military bombed three power stations in different parts of Lebanon Monday night, wounding at least 17 people, and then immediately ordered residents of its northernmost towns into bomb shelters until further notice as it braced for Hezbollah's inevitable retaliatory fusillade of Katyushka rockets. Hours after the air strike, an Israeli soldier was killed in a Hezbollah attack in Israel's southern Lebanon security zone. The Israeli air raid came after five Israeli soldiers had been killed by the Iran-backed militia in the past two weeks, and the likely escalation threatens to jeopardize Israel-Syria peace talks. Although Israel had hoped to achieve security along its Lebanon border as part of a peace deal with Syria, pressure is now mounting on Prime Minister Ehud Barak to keep his election promise of withdrawing by July, unilaterally if necessary.