Barak had promised in last year's election campaign to effect a unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon by July, but with the stalled Israeli-Syrian peace talks unlikely to produce Syrian security guarantees along the Lebanese border, retreat remains risky — and that's a fact not lost on Damascus. "Syria has the ability to shut down Hezbollah, but with no sign of movement in talks with Israel over the Golan Heights, it may have little incentive to do that," says TIME Middle East bureau chief Scott MacLeod. "Hezbollah, though, has its own reasons for raising the temperature. It wants to boost its political standing in Lebanon by claiming victory from any Israeli withdrawal, proclaiming itself the first Arab party to have ever driven Israel from Arab territory."
There's an element of truth to Hezbollah's claim, in the sense that the steady stream of casualties it has inflicted on Israel over the years has left the Israeli electorate overwhelmingly in favor of withdrawing from Lebanon. But while it would have the guerrillas crowing victory, a unilateral Israeli withdrawal would leave Syria in the lurch. "Syria doesn't want Israel out of Lebanon before an agreement on the Golan Heights, because guaranteeing Israeli security there is one of Syria's prime bargaining chips," says MacLeod. "The Israelis may be trying to take advantage of that by threatening unilateral withdrawal, but that could get Barak into trouble if Hezbollah starts firing rockets directly into Israel." Which may be why Israel has been reluctant to strike too hard in Lebanon for fear of hampering a resumption of talks with Syria. But while the high-stakes brinkmanship between Israel and Syria continues, Hezbollah is more than happy to accrue the spoils.