"The rules of the new governing body would make it a lot more difficult to put things back together if Trimble walked out, which is why London believes suspending the institutions is the best way of saving the deal," says TIME London bureau chief Jef McAllister. "But Sinn Fein, the government of the Republic of Ireland and the moderate party SDLP preferred by the majority of Northern Ireland's Catholic voters have warned that suspension could create a dangerous vacuum and deal a mortal blow to the peace process."
The IRA's reluctance to begin handing in weapons has been sharply criticized by the U.S. and Irish governments, as well as by the SDLP. "The IRA may have shot itself in the foot in terms of international support," says McAllister. "But there's clearly a split between the Sinn Fein leadership and the IRA hard men who've always been dubious about surrendering their weapons, even though those weapons are silent. Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness may have thought they could deliver at least a token IRA commitment by the end of January, but they clearly can't — and Trimble's ultimatum, if anything, has made their task even more difficult, because the IRA has been adamant that it won't disarm in response to pressure from its enemies." No wonder McGuinness appeared on the verge of tears at his last media conference. Right now there's no lonelier place in Northern Ireland than at the head of Sinn Fein.