GOP Fears Pat in a New Party Hat

Pat Buchanan is providing George W. Bush's campaign staff with some much-needed if probably short-lived dramatic tension. The political pundit and columnist, who recently dismissed the GOP as "a Xerox copy of the Democratic party," confirmed on Monday mornings "Today" show that he is thinking of defecting from the GOP and seeking the Reform partys nomination for president. Not that Buchanan should assume the welcome wagon will be wheeled out for him. If he does push to be the nominee of the party founded by Ross Perot he said he would make the "agonizing" decision in early October his views on such issues as abortion may render him untouchable among party power brokers like Minnesota governor Jesse Ventura, who has already voiced his concern over Buchanans social conservatism.

For Republican and Democratic strategists, an independent Buchanan campaign remains something of an X factor. As a social conservative, Buchanan could siphon off twice as many votes from a Republican candidate than from a Democrat, according to a poll conducted by GOP consultant Frank Luntz. Republicans are painfully aware of this threat, says TIME Washington deputy bureau chief Matthew Cooper. As Jay [Carney, TIME's Washington correspondent] discovered, the Bush people have launched a charm offensive to keep Buchanan from bolting, says Cooper. But loyal Dems shouldnt mail their Buchanan campaign contributions just yet, Democratic strategist James Carville told TIME Buchanan could steal votes away from the Democratic candidate if he decides to take a labor-friendly hard line on cheap imports. Whatever their affiliation, issue-minded voters everywhere should be rooting for a Buchanan run a serious third-party candidate with Buchanans visibility might force self-styled "moderate" Republican and Democratic hopefuls to more forcefully articulate their positions on a number of hot topics, from abortion to campaign finance reform.