For investors, forecasting the Feds next move is nerve-racking enough without nasty little surprises. A nice buyback rally turned to mush on Tuesday morning after the National Association of Purchasing Management hit the button too early and posted its monthly manufacturing-activity survey on its web site a day ahead of schedule. The report, says TIME senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl, "showed a surprising amount of pressure on manufacturers prices, which could eventually push up consumer prices." In other words, it smelled like inflation — and so the Dow plunged 200 points off the days high, U.S. Treasury bonds dropped, and for a few hours it was as if Alan Greenspan had phoned in a quarter-point hike from a pay phone around the corner.

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He hadnt, of course — Baumohl says the Fed still looks done for the year — and the markets eventually got over the shock and bounced back by afternoon. "Theres a little overreaction about the Fed on this," says Baumohl. "Remember, this is data from July, before even the Feds hike just last week - and its not even the most important news of the week." That will come on Friday, when two other reports are due — one for consumer spending and one for unemployment — which will really shake things up if they carry the same whiff of overheating.