For a nest of gamblers, Wall Street can take a while to place its bets. But when it does... Nearly a full week after a tame inflation report made it apparent that the Fed would raise rates once, and just once, when it meets this Tuesday, the markets finally got used to the idea on Monday. The Dow came charging out of the gate to steam up more than 130 points, and after a midafternoon lull sprinted through the tape at 199.15 well into record territory. And all this on the eve of a rate hike? Welcome to the "discount" rally. "Its not so much whether Greenspan raises rates or not, its how sure they are that they know what hes going to do," says TIME senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl. "Right now theyre sure theyve discounted for the rate hike over the past few sessions, and today the rally was on."

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But that doesnt necessarily mean that confidence will still be there at 2:15 p.m. (ET) Tuesday, when The Great Greenspan clears his throat. "Theres always that bit of uncertainty as the day draws near," Baumohl says. Come noon, along with the profit-taking from Monday to contend with, therell be plenty of investors who dont feel quite as smart as they did the day before. No hike? Twice the hike? Rally? Sell-off? Stay out of it until Greenspans gospel (2:15 p.m.) is fully digested. For the record, the safe betting is on one quarter-point hike (come on, guys when was the last time the Fed raised a half-point?) and then let things be for the rest of 1999. But you knew that already we told you last week.