Why Alan Greenspan Can Get Ready for Hibernation

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If theres one word Wall Street loves these days, its "tame." Thats the best way to describe Tuesdays report that the Consumer Price Index had risen a reasonable 0.3 percent in July (and an even more reasonable 0.2 percent excluding volatile food and energy prices). The morning news sparked a comfortable little rally based on a comfortable little assumption: When the Fed meets on August 24, Alan Greenspan will nudge up interest rates by a quarter point, and just a quarter point. "If you look at the general slope of the numbers, its apparent that inflation pressures are picking up a little," says TIME senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl. "Its not out of control, but it gives the Fed a good opportunity to move."

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And for the ever-cautious Greenspan, the slow-news dog days of August are the perfect time to put rate worries to bed for the year. "First of all, hell want to make sure theres enough liquidity in the money supply to deal with any Y2K disruptions," says Baumohl. "And he knows that as the political campaigns heat up, theres going to be debate about the economy. He doesnt want to be part of that rhetoric." Which could be rough on Steve Forbes. But Al Gore will be thankful for a domestic economy thats nice and domesticated.