The Republicans' Phantom Tax Cut

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Going once, going twice... House and Senate Republicans late Tuesday came up with the refund theyve always wanted a 10-year, $792 billion smattering of tax cuts that combines the Houses across-the-board dreams (in this version, a one-percentage-point cut in every bracket) with the Senates targeted goodies (relief of the marriage penalty, increase IRA contribution limits) that make the measure sound more like one of Bill Clintons than Newt Gingrichs. And thats exactly why maybe just maybe some of this begging-to-be-vetoed bill might survive the summer. "The fact that it has so many of the earmarks of William Roths (R-Del) Senate version means there is some possibility of splitting the difference with Clinton," says TIME White House correspondent Jay Branegan. "But first theyre going to go home and see if they can sell it, and get some leverage from the voters."

After its passage this week, the bill should land on President Clintons desk sometime in September, at which point either its going to get a lot smaller Clintons stated upper limit is $300 billion, but hell go higher in a pinch -- or its going to disappear completely. And by way of pre-negotiation negotiation, both sides will be insisting all month that thats OK with them. "Sometimes inaction is better than wrong action," said Trent Lott on Tuesday, sounding just like White House wonk Gene Sperling did on Sunday. If no deal gets done, this years surplus goes straight into debt repayment something nobody is against these days. And although Roth has a way with bipartisanship, a standoff seems the likeliest possibility. "Clinton has successfully sold his spending programs as more important than tax cuts," says Branegan. "The White House doesnt feel it will have to give too much up, and if the GOP stands firm, Clinton will veto it." But take heart, overtaxed Americans: if he does, you'll get another crack at it next year.