Indonesians last year overthrew longtime strongman and U.S. ally President Suharto, setting the stage for an election that has inevitably opened old wounds. Suharto's handpicked successor, President B. J. Habibie, faces his toughest challenge from an opposition coalition led by Megawati Sukarnopurti -- the left-leaning daughter of President Sukarno, who was overthrown by Suharto in a bloody coup in 1965. Still, says Dowell, "Habibie can't lose -- he's the approved candidate of the military, which keeps 238 of the 500 seats in parliament for their own appointees." The military orchestrated Suharto's ouster in the face of mass protests, and has been moving at its own pace to democratize the country. "Remember, this is a group of islands inhabited by an absolute diversity of linguistic, religious and ethnic groups bound together only by the fact that they were colonized by the Dutch," says Dowell. "The army is the only really national institution holding the whole place together." Despite its built-in near-majority, if the army's party is trounced at the polls it may be persuaded to share power, on its own terms, with the opposition. That's if the election goes ahead: Analysts fear that the campaign could ignite the violent social unrest that has bubbled under the surface since last year -- and if there's one thing the military can't stand, it's civilian chaos.
Why Washington Keeps an Eagle Eye on Indonesia
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The United States has a lot more at stake in Indonesia's election than simply a basket-case economy in need of rescue from decades of corruption. "Indonesia is the key U.S. geopolitical ally in the region," says TIME correspondent William Dowell. "For more than 30 years it's mobilized the Pacific Rim countries to stand up to China's regional ambitions." The 17,000-island archipelago is the world's fourth most populous nation, and controls vital sea routes in the Pacific. And that's why the campaign for the June 7 poll, which began on Wednesday, is setting off alarm bells in Washington.