A northern alliance soldier fires towards Taliban positions
TIME.com: What's the latest from the battle for Mazar-i-Sharif?
Alex Perry: We've learned from sources with two key Northern Alliance commanders, generals Rashid Dostum and Mohammed Atta, that contrary to expectations, Northern Alliance forces have moved unopposed through the Shol Ghar pass south of Mazar-i-Sharif. They now claim to be four miles south of the city, and are promising to capture it tomorrow (Thursday). The reason for their rapid advance, they say, is that the Taliban forces defending the city have abandoned Mazar, heading west to Herat and east to Kunduz.
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It's impossible to verify these reports right now because no journalists are in the area at all — this part of the war is being reported entirely by phone. We're frantically trying to call sources inside Mazar-i-Sharif right now, but all the lines are jammed. Still, the sources who have fed us this information have proved fairly reliable in the past. Three Alliance commanders in the area have told identical stories. And it's a claim they're unlikely to make unless it were true. They are confident that they'll be in Mazar tomorrow.
How would the Taliban forces have fled? Was an escape route left open by the Northern Alliance forces?
Yes, the roads to the east and west are still open, and pass through territory nominally controlled by the Taliban. These roads are controlled by guerrilla forces that switch sides rapidly. The Alliance claims a number have already switched sides. But theoretically the roads would still be open to a large Taliban force.
Are there concerns that allowing the Northern Alliance an easy passage into the city could be a Taliban trap?
It's not a possibility that can easily be dismissed. The Taliban learned their lessons in strategy and tactics from the mujahedeen, who learned from the CIA. They're extremely sophisticated, infinitely more so than the Northern Alliance. So there is a little disquiet over the fact that an advance expected to be so bloody has proved to be a little too easy.
The recent history of Mazar-i-Sharif is extremely bloody. When a Northern Alliance commander switched sides in 1997 and let the Taliban in, they immediately started ordering everyone around. The population turned on them, massacring between two- and four thousand Taliban troops. So when the Taliban recaptured the city the following year, they took a bloody revenge, killing some 6,000 civilians. Everyone had been expecting that once the Taliban were under siege and in trouble, the city would rise up against them, precipitating a bloodbath. With the appetite for revenge in Mazar-i-Sharif, nobody was expecting the Taliban fighters to survive a battle for the city. That may be one reason why they might have decided to leave.
How would you read a Taliban retreat?
They still hold Herat, which is a long way from Mazar, and they'd have to move down along the Turkmenistan border to get there. But the Taliban are in a strong position at Herat. So that's one possible retreat. The more obvious choices are Taloqan and Kunduz. But if they're there and the road from Kabul to Mazar is cut, the Taliban forces there face being cut off, because many of the local commanders between them and Kabul may be bought off.
So they could be looking at another siege situation. A lot of the Taliban fighters in Mazar were not Afghan — they're Chechens, Pakistanis, Saudis and others, and they don't have anywhere to run and hide. They tend to be more extreme and ideologically committed, and they say their death prayers before they go into battle. People had been expecting them to stand to the last man at Mazar. If they go to Kunduz, they may simply be postponing that last stand. Unless they plan to surrender, which nobody is expecting.
Has this week's fighting been fierce, or have the Northern Alliance advanced towards the city with only token resistance?
The main battle began on Monday night, and lasted 24 hours, some 60 miles south of the city. Atta's and Dostum's forces launched a two-pronged attack which saw extremely fierce fighting. Dostum deployed his "cavalry," about 1,000 men riding ponies. And the Taliban hit them with everything they had, including artillery and heavy machine guns. Reports from the front said the loss of life had been heavy.
Of course all the information we get comes with a heavy health warning — there is no independent verification down there.
How would the fall of Mazar-i-Sharif change the strategic equation in Afghanistan?
Mazar has tremendous historical and religious significance in Afghanistan. It contains a shrine to Ali, the nephew of the Prophet Muhammad who is revered by the Shiite Muslims. And, of course, Hazari ethnic group, which makes up much of the city's population and some 20 percent of Afghanistan, are Shiite — which is why the Sunni Taliban took such delight in taking it from them.
But of even greater significance are the city's two air strips, which once they're repaired could make a huge difference to the U.S. military campaign — right now planes have to fly from the Arabian sea across Pakistan, often having to refuel before they reach their targets. But flying from Mazar would put U.S. warplanes ten minutes away from their targets. Also, it would open the gates for massive food aid distribution, which is desperately needed on the plain to the south of the city where hundreds of thousands of people had depended on food aid even before the fighting began.
Some people believe that if Mazar-i-Sharif falls, it's all over for the Taliban. But I think that's overstated. They're extremely strong in the south, and they're being reinforced daily by volunteers from Pakistan and elsewhere. But if the reports prove true, it would certainly be a major blow to the Taliban — their first big loss.