Two soldiers patrol a town in the Taji area of Iraq, May 12, 2007.
While widespread doubts in the Pentagon remain that the U.S. troop surge is going to work, one thing is clear: It is becoming increasingly costly in terms of American blood. As May comes to a close, the death toll for U.S. troops in Iraq measured over a two-month period has reached an all-time high. Military officials had predicted such a spike as General David Petraeus began to flow close to 30,000 more U.S. troops into greater Baghdad, stationing many in small outposts dotted across the region. Unfortunately, it's one prediction that the brass got right: At least 220 U.S. troops have been killed in Iraq since the end of March, eclipsing the 215 who died in April and May of 2004 during the fight for Fallujah.
Ten of May's casualties were killed on Memorial Day, and beyond the irony, what's important is how eight of them perished. They weren't carrying out Petraeus's orders to mingle with local Iraqis in an effort to foster trust and glean tips on the insurgency. Rather, a pair of them died when their OH-58D Kiowa scout helicopter crashed 60 miles north of Baghdad — and six more were killed in roadside bombings as they rushed to the aid of the downed chopper crew. The Pentagon hasn't said whether the helicopter was hit by hostile fire, but the fact that rescuers rushing to help the pilots were ambushed suggests that insurgents downed the Kiowa in order to bait a trap for those rescuers.
So, the grim question hanging over the current U.S. strategy is this: Will the surge and resulting rise in U.S. casualties smother the insurgency before U.S. patience runs out? The next three months will be key, because Congress has made it clear that it will force the Bush Administration into a major change in strategy in September if it appears that progress is not being made. "It could be a very difficult August," President Bush said last week. "We're going to expect heavy fighting in the weeks and months [ahead]. We can expect more American and Iraqi casualties."
Progress, Pentagon officials say privately, needs to be significant and measurable when weighed against the blood now being shed by U.S. forces in Iraq. The Pentagon has confirmed the deaths of 3,454 American military personnel in Iraq, and the wounding of 25,549, since the invasion in March 2003.
The Memorial Day attacks show that the insurgency has cunning aplenty, and is likely to use it to drive up U.S. casualties in the months ahead. "We are dealing with a smart, agile, thinking enemy, and I think we should be prepared for them to make a very strong effort to increase the level of violence in July and August," Defense Secretary Robert Gates said last week. "My hope is that anticipating it will allow us to thwart it." Gates wouldn't be the first Defense Secretary to have his hopes dashed in Iraq.