Unstoppa-Bull?

  • Share
  • Read Later
NEW YORK: Savvy profit-takers immediately nibbled away at the Dow's new record Tuesday, dropping the index 60 points by early afternoon. But the large buy-and-hold crowd needn't worry, says TIME personal finance columnist Daniel Kadlec: This bull -- pun half-intended -- isn't going anywhere for a while. "This market clearly wants to go up," he says. "The economy still looks strong, and Greenspan's rate cuts clearly worked. It just doesn't make any sense to fight it."

Not unless Alan Greenspan suddenly starts feeding the bears. Third-quarter GDP growth was revised up on Tuesday to 3.9 percent; consumer confidence in October posted its first increase in months. All well and good, but if the economy starts to overheat this winter, count on Greenspan being there with -- gasp -- a quarter-point rate increase. "There's no sign of a Fed raise yet," says Kadlec. "But if it happens down the road next year, this market will drop like a brick. Maybe 20 or 30 percent." Then it'll really be time to buy -- or so the '90s wisdom goes.