Bosnian Serbs go to the polls this weekend to vote on an internationally-backed peace plan. The prediction: they'll handily reject it. That would trigger the lifting of sanctions against their enemies, the Bosnian Muslims. This in turn would lead to "years of guerrilla warfare" that the Serbs will lose, says TIME Central Europe Bureau Chief James Graff. The Muslims have always had a population advantage; now they could shed their weapons handicap.