"The Fed's first two cuts have done the trick," says Baumohl. "If Greenspan stands pat, it's reassuring -- it means he thinks things are fine. If he cuts, he sends the signal that he's still worried, and that could actually rattle the markets." Of course, things aren't really fine; the recent recoveries of markets in Korea and Thailand are probably illusory, and Japan's stimulus packages have a way of evaporating before they hit the economy. That may yet prompt a cut, but Greenspan seems more likely to wait until the Fed meets again on Dec. 22. The good times should last at least until then.