President Bush, center, speaks to members of the media following his meeting with the Iraq Study Group in the Cabinet Room of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2006.
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Stay the course is out of the question, as far as the commission is concerned, for many reasons: The Iraqi army is making only "fitful progress" toward becoming an independent fighting force; the Iraqi police are in "substantially worse" shape; and the results of joint U.S.-Iraqi military maneuvers like Operation Together Forward have been "disheartening." Iraq may have a democratically elected government, but it is deeply divided and can't provide "basic security" or "essential services." Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki understands "the key issues facing Iraq," but has demonstrated no resolve to solve problems. Corruption alone is "rampant" in his government. One senior Iraqi official told the study group that graft now costs Iraq $5 billion to $7 billion a year.
The change in war strategy the commission proposes would be major. The U.S. command in Baghdad should dramatically shift forces in the country, the report says, to increase the current 3,000-4,000 American trainers embedded with Iraqi forces to 10,000-20,000. By the beginning of 2008, "subject to unexpected developments in the security situation on the ground," the report recommends that the 15 U.S. combat brigades (about 70,000 soldiers) be out of Iraq. American forces will have to help the Iraqi leaders carry out their security responsibilities. But Bush should make clear to Maliki that if the Baghdad government doesn't take responsibility, then the U.S. essentially will wash its hands of the mess and withdraw its forces as planned, the report recommends.
The U.S. troop commitment can no longer be "open-ended," the commission decided. The blood and treasure the U.S. has already poured into the country has been "massive." More than 2,900 U.S. soldiers have been killed, 21,000 have been wounded, and the war has so far cost $400 billion. The total bill for U.S. involvement in Iraq — figuring in other extras like caring for veterans and replacing lost military equipment — could end up being a staggering $2 trillion.