Campaign 2006: The Battle for Ohio, Round Two

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Both candidates were supposed to reshuffle the usual voting patterns, as Blackwell has showed up in black churches while Strickland has appealed to evangelicals who normally back Republicans. Only Strickland has succeeded so far. In polls, Strickland is getting 40% of the vote from self-described white evangelical Christians; John Kerry got fewer than 25% in 2004. By contrast, recent polls show Blackwell getting from 15% to 20% of the black vote, about the same as Bush got. Of course, this is the race most affected by the Taft scandal, since Blackwell is running to keep the governor's office in Republican hands. Barring a stunning turnaround, he won't: polls show Strickland ahead by 12 to 21 points.

HOUSE

Rep. Steve Chabot (R) vs. John Cranley (D)

The Democrats have adopted a risky strategy in a few key races: having a guy who already lost to the incumbent once try again. Cranley won only 45% of the vote in 2000 in this district near Cincinnati when he took on Chabot the first time. The six-term Chabot won 60% of the vote in 2004, but this is a close district in which Bush got about 51% of the vote in 2004. This is also a much more difficult year for Republicans, and Cranley has had six more years to establish himself as a city councilman in Cincinnati.

So Chabot, like other Republicans in tight races, is changing the subject from Iraq. He's touting his work to cut wasteful spending, while accusing Cranley of supporting "amnesty" for illegal immigration. Cranley is trying to keep voters focused on the problems at hand, running ads blaming Chabot for high gas prices and linking his opponent with voters' frustrations on other issues such as the increasing national debt.

HOUSE

Zach Space (D) v. Joy Padgett (R)

In the race to replace Bob Ney, State Senator Joy Padgett has one advantage; a conservative district in eastern Ohio where President Bush won 57% of the vote in 2004. The challenge for her will be to not allow Space to define her as being close to the Bobs. Space, a lawyer, will be trying hard, as ad an he started running last week calls Padgett "Bob Taft and Bob Ney's handpicked candidate."

—with reporting by Michael Lindenberger/Louisville