Bush Vs. Saddam The Sequel

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While U.S. officials like Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld talk of aggressive new strategies to get rid of Saddam, Powell speaks mainly of reinvigorating the sanctions. To do that, he will need to convince Arab and European allies that Saddam is playing and winning a propaganda game by letting his people starve. And to bring the allies back aboard, Powell will need to draw up an approach that reduces civilian hardships while concentrating embargoes on things that count. Powell has taken to saying sanctions are really about ensuring that Iraq complies with 1991 cease-fire agreements limiting its weaponry of all kinds. So the U.S. will "refocus" on stopping sales of arms and weapons materials, shortening the list of controlled items and allowing more ordinary commerce.

Arriving at a fresh approach the entire Administration supports and selling it abroad will be tough. Even if Powell does, the odds on successfully squelching Saddam still look awfully long. In the meantime, Bush has little alternative to the occasional raid. But it is hard to see that these lead to anything other than the same old policy of containment--unless Bush II is ready to finish the job the way Bush I started it.