Campaign 2000: Beware the Iowa Surprise

Yes, funny things can happen here--but they don't necessarily matter

Here's a handy time saver for next week: skip just about all the post-Iowa analysis. If history is any guide, almost all of it will be wrong. For instance, if somebody says "the road to the White House leads through Des Moines," ask him if he's using Amelia Earhart's map. Yes, Jimmy Carter used Iowa in 1976 to show he was a serious contender, but that's about it. More often than not, Iowa fades into insignificance by the time New Hampshire votes. Wait a minute, you say. Wouldn't big Iowa victories provide momentum for front runners George W. Bush and Al...

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