War by Fits and Starts

Why Fallujah won't be the last bloody battle in the race to pacify Iraq in time for its elections

By Bill Powell Monday, Nov. 22, 2004

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    Yet even after the violence and inflammatory rhetoric of the past week, not all Iraqis are convinced the Sunnis will sit out the vote. Sunni leaders are acutely aware that the majority Shi'ites--who make up 60% of Iraq's population--seem united in their desire for elections. Optimistic U.S. and Iraqi officials believe that as elections draw near, at least some Sunni leaders will recognize their interest in having a say in Iraq's first elected government. As Sarmad Mohammad, a Sunni fruit vendor in Baghdad, says, "If there are no Sunni leaders in the new government, all the jobs in the government, police and army will go to Shi'as and Kurds."

    However tumultuous the January elections prove to be, it's clear that the ultimate outcome in Iraq--whether it moves toward a semblance of stability or civil war--comes down to a test of wills. The U.S. command believes that the supply of suicidal Baathists, Islamic holy warriors and Iraqi nationalists will eventually exhaust itself. Robert Scales, a retired Army major general, says history teaches that violent attacks on insurgencies such as the campaign mounted by the U.S. in Fallujah can work. "You don't just keep growing insurgents," Scales says. "By effectively eliminating the hard-core terrorists, the fellow travelers see the handwriting on the wall. While the insurgency doesn't disappear, it tends to collapse to something down around noise level." But if Fallujah is a sign of things to come, the volume is likely to get cranked up first. --Reported by Andrew Lee Butters/Mosul, Aparisim Ghosh and Phil Zabriskie/Baghdad, and Mark Thompson/Washington

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