Let's Make This Vote Interesting, Shall We?

Even political pros are hedging their bets on the outcome of a presidential horse race that shifts almost daily. But one prophecy has been surprisingly confident: that of the online futures market, where thousands of people bet real money on the race. The major exchanges--the Iowa Electronic Markets and Intrade--have, on average, given Bush about a 60% chance of winning since September. While some say the markets are too small to be clairvoyant (only $8 million has been traded in the Bush contract at Dublin-based Intrade, the largest market), they have impressive records. Since 1988, the Iowa exchange's average error in...

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