GRADING EXPECTATIONS

A READER'S GUIDE TO PRIMARIES: WHY THE CANDIDATE WITH THE MOST VOTES ISN'T ALWAYS THE WINNER

WE'RE GONNA WIN BOTH," BOB DOLE SAID OF IOWA AND NEW HAMPshire last week, which is really all he could have said, since he's been saying the same thing for almost a year. But how big will those scores be? "You're not gonna trap me in that deal," Dole told me last summer--after predicting that the "fat lady would sing" if he lost New Hampshire. "I don't do expectations." No matter. Everyone else "does" expectations, and there's no escaping them.

In the days before civilians actually start voting, the people who make their living in politics somehow agree on a standard,...

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