The Morning After

In the supercharged atmosphere of a primary election, the urge to be first with the news can lead to hasty -- and flawed -- predictions. Such was the case with early television and radio reports about Pat Buchanan's showing in New Hampshire. Minutes after the polls closed, commentators announced that Buchanan was running close with the President, with each candidate getting more than 40% of the vote. As the night wore on, they lowered estimates of Buchanan's support to 40%. On Wednesday, when all the ballots had been counted, Buchanan's tally had dropped to 37%, 16 points behind Bush's.

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