THE POCKETBOOK INDICATOR. A reliable way to predict whether a President will be re-elected is to look at the growth in Americans' real disposable income -- essentially their spending money -- in the 12 months before the election, according to Robert Wescott, an economist at Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates. His study of postwar elections shows that every time growth was less than 3.8%, the incumbent party lost the White House. If Wescott's prediction for 1992 holds up, Bush faces trouble:
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