Oil experts call it the "war premium." For the U.S., heightened global anxiety about the security of Persian Gulf crude supplies has imposed an extra cost of more than $20 billion in higher oil prices since Iraq invaded Kuwait last August. The burden, acting like a new tax, helped push the U.S. into recession and put a drag on sluggish economies around the world. With every new rumor out of the Persian Gulf, the war premium swung menacingly. The gyrations gave rise to a frightening question: How high would oil prices skyrocket if fighting actually broke out -- $50 or even...
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