How Low Can We Go?

In public, Administration officials shy away from the R word -- recession, that is -- when talking about the economy. But now they privately acknowledge that the nation is in a serious downturn. Bush advisers say the economy will show negative growth for the fourth quarter at an annualized rate of nearly 3%. Says a senior analyst: "Chances are better than fifty-fifty that the first quarter of 1991 will be negative too." If that proves correct, the economic contraction would fit the generally accepted definition of a recession. Despite the bad news, the White House does not plan to change its...

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