Donna Baker thought, last July, that she might well vote for Michael Dukakis. "I figured a change would be good," says this young working mother in Warren, Mich. Not anymore. Though usually loyal to her family's Democratic tradition, Baker has now decided on George Bush. Her reason? Baker answers firmly: "Dukakis' views on crime."
Baker's opinions and personal circumstances make her typical of a special -- and critical -- voting group: the Reagan Democrats. Ronald Reagan was the first Republican these white, working-class Americans supported for President. Together with other Democratic defectors, they represent 12% of the electorate. If Dukakis cannot...