POLICY: That Word Recession Again

Recession is a dirty word to politicians and one that even economists use with some trepidation, partly because it is difficult to define precisely (see box next page). Nonetheless, five of the nine members of TIME'S Board of Economists —Otto Eckstein, Walter Heller, Robert Nathan, Arthur Okun and Joseph Pechman—declare that the U.S. economy is heading into a recession, one that cannot be blamed only on the direct effects of the fuel shortage.

At a meeting last week, the Board members revised only slightly their specific forecasts for 1974. Several who had looked...