Forecasting the future of world crude-oil prices is one of the riskiest ventures in the whole realm of economic prediction. The questions involved go far beyond economics. Can the oil-producing nations continue to hold together as a cartel? How much and how quickly will they extend national ownership of the multinational oil-company affiliates pumping on their lands? Is a lasting peace likely in the Middle East, or might renewed fighting lead to a reimposition of the Arab oil embargo? Despite all these puzzlers, top U.S. economists now agree on two conclusions: barring...
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