OUTLOOK: New Cause for a Pause

The productive capability of the U.S. economy is so great that every recession in the nation's recent history has been caused by a weakness in demand for its tremendous output of goods and services. Next year, though, the nation will experience something new: a slowdown caused by the inability of fuel-short businesses to satisfy demand. Members of TIME'S Board of Economists warned at a meeting last week that the pause could easily turn into the U.S.'s first "supply-induced recession" ever.

That is not an inevitable outcome. Indeed, the board's consensus forecast is that the slide will be over by midyear,...

Want the full story?

Subscribe Now


Get TIME the way you want it

  • One Week Digital Pass — $4.99
  • Monthly Pay-As-You-Go DIGITAL ACCESS$2.99
  • One Year ALL ACCESSJust $30!   Best Deal!
    Print Magazine + Digital Edition + Subscriber-only Content on TIME.com

Learn more about the benefits of being a TIME subscriber

If you are already a subscriber sign up — registration is free!