A Republican tide is running. So concluded the FORTUNE Survey after studying its latest U.S. results.

Franklin Roosevelt still had a lead just barely big enough (53%-to-47%) to insure Term IV—if the election were held now. (To win, any Democratic candidate must have perhaps as much as 52% of the popular vote, because of votes "wasted" in the Solid South.) This lead had been whittled down from a high of 57.1% in August.

The pollsters found that the Dewey vote was just about twice as firm as the Roosevelt vote. For every Dewey supporter who might be persuaded to change his...

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