National Affairs: Straw

The stack of straw votes accumulated at a cost of perhaps $1,000,000 by the Literary Digest (weekly opinion collector) is pointed to as one of the most momentous signs of the campaign. Last week, in its fifth installment, it showed Hoover ahead in 44 of the 48 states. The totals were: Hoover, 1,593,436; Smith 910,234. The electoral votes thus far forecast were: Hoover, 488, Smith, 43.

A reason that the Literary Digest poll has received serious attention is that in 1924 it forecast the electoral votes received by President Coolidge with 99.44% accuracy.

Penetrating behind the electoral votes predicted in 1924 to the...

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