The Forecasters Flunk

Poor predictions give once prestigious pundits a dismal reputation

"I'm thinking of quitting and becoming a hockey goalie."

Lawrence Chimerine, chairman of Chase Econometrics, could be speaking for the entire fraternity of economic forecasters. After their failure to foresee the current economic boom, trying to block slap shots might seem like an easier career. Almost with one voice, the experts a year ago predicted moderate growth and a rise in inflation in 1984. They were spectacularly wrong. The U.S. economy has since embarked on a boom that has produced a stronger expansion with steadier prices...

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