Europe's Dour Outlook

A year of convalescence with a mild recovery beginning in the summer

For the third time in a row, Western Europe is entering the new year in recession. While there is a prospect of economic recovery beginning in the latter half of 1982, the long-awaited upswing is likely to be highly vulnerable. It could be snuffed out, for example, by a renewed surge of interest rates in the U.S., another bout of currency gyrations or the surrender by hard-pressed governments to mounting pressures for trade protection. Moreover, a sustained pickup is threatened by the increasingly divergent economic performances and policies of...

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