THE STOCK MARKETS CRYSTAL BALL

When the Dow surges, a recession's days are numbered

With the end of the current recession everything but official, the old adage that Wall Street anticipates economic upturns with a bull market has proved itself true once again. (Most economists now agree that the recession ended in January, though the National Bureau for Economic Research, the outfit that decrees on such matters, has yet to rule it is over.)

The stock market began its rebound last August, when the Dow Jones industrial average started its record-breaking climb from 776 to over 1100. At the time, many economists were still gloomy, and...

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