OUTLOOK: Slower, but No 'Pause'

It has been a poor year for pessimism. Their outlook chilled by the frigid winter's possible impact on the recovery, many economists scaled down their growth forecasts for the year's first quarter. What happened? Business expanded at a robust rate. In the second quarter, when President Carter dropped his $50 tax rebate stimulus proposal, some seers again lowered their sights—and again were proved wrong. Last week the Commerce Department reported that in the three months ending in June, the nation's real gross national product grew at a healthy annual rate of 6.4%. That compares favorably with the first quarter's...

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