OUTLOOK: Recovery Proof--and Peril

Although economists have been increasingly sure for several weeks that the nation's worst slump since the 1930s has finally ended, the statistics were too weak or contradictory to give them proof. Last week an unambiguous set of figures removed just about all the remaining doubt. Among them:

> Real gross national product—the total value of goods and services produced, discounted for inflation—steadied during the second quarter. It declined at a statistically insignificant annual rate of 0.3%, v. 11.4% in the January-March period.

> Industrial production, after eight consecutive months of decline, rose in June at an annual rate of 4.9%. The...

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