State of Business: The Economy's DEW Line

The U.S. economy is behaving so well that no one seems to worry any more about the possibility of misbehavior. Even professionally pessimistic economists see no storms ahead. How can they be so sure?

The National Bureau of Economic Research every week receives a mass of suggestions from citizens about how to predict the course of the economy: by aspirin sales, race-track betting, blue print production, employment of temporary office help. Some of the suggestions actually make sense, but they are like so many popguns in the economic forecaster's arsenal. The...

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