With the presidential election still more than a year away, this is the Hot-Stove League season in national politics. It is the time when small trades are talked about, small promises made, small wagers placed on the prospects.

But all those small things can add up to a lot. In Autumn 1963, there is no doubt about who next summer's Democratic presidential nominee will be. And so the Hot-Stove League talk centers around the G.O.P. situation. Arizona's Senator Barry Goldwater has a huge lead for the nomination; there is strong evidence that he might...

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