Foreign Relations: The Predictability Gap

Not that crisis is to be recommended, but there is nothing like a real, full blown, to-the-brink international flap to clear the air of confusion. Crisis can, in fact, impose its own orderliness, washing away irrelevancies, clarifying issues in black and white terms, mobilizing national resource and purpose, setting in train a predictable sequence of action and reaction.

Throughout most of the cold war years, the world has lived in a state of constantly recurring crisis. So accustomed have so many become to the condition that its absence can cause a vague...

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