State of Business: Recovery by August?

Putting their fingers to the wind, after first running their eyes up and down the latest charts, Government economists last week set the date when they expect the recovering economy to regain its former peak: the end of August. If their calculations are right, the recovery would be one of the swiftest in recent U.S. history, following a recession that already ranks (in percentage of decline) as the mildest. Measured by the Federal Reserve Board index of industrial production, recoveries to pre-recession highs since 1919 have taken between five months and 17 months (see chart). If the present recession reached...

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