CEASE-FIRE: The Fallacy of Momentum

The normal condition of the Korean truce talks is deadlock. After a major concession by one side or the other, a brief spurt of progress usually follows, and then the deadlock settles down again. Hopeful observers who in July hoped for peace in August, and in October hoped for peace in November, and now hope for peace by New Year's, suffer from what might be called the fallacy of momentum. They assume that each spurt of progress will generate enough energy to carry the negotiators quickly over all the remaining obstacles. It never seems to work out that...

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