Last Guesses

All public opinion polls had picked Franklin Roosevelt.

¶ The FORTUNE Survey, conducted by Elmo Roper, divided the popular civilian vote: Roosevelt, 53.6%; Dewey, 46.4%.*

¶ The Crossley poll included an estimate of the soldier vote, its prediction: Roosevelt, 52.2%; Dewey, 47.8%.

¶ The Gallup poll, after hanging squarely on the fence for days, made no final prediction, but totted up its election-eve total: Roosevelt, 51.5%; Dewey, 48.5%. In electoral votes, Gallup gave F.D.R. 18 sure states with 165 votes, Dewey ten sure states with 85 votes; and left 20 states with 281 votes in the balance.

*FORTUNE'S secret...

Want the full story?

Subscribe Now


Learn more about the benefits of being a TIME subscriber

If you are already a subscriber sign up — registration is free!