Economists have about the same fun drawing conclusions from the weekly reports of the Federal Reserve System as scientists do drawing new diagrams of the atom. On one series of the complex Federal Reserve statistics all commentators are agreed—that the rise and fall of commercial loans by U. S. banks is usually a good measure of business activity. Thus, all through Depression II the volume of credit issued to business has fallen (with occasional minor reversals) some $20,000,000 a week in New York City, another $20,000,000 in the rest of the U. S....
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