Bad Days For Blair

Before the week is out, Tony Blair may discover whether he can remain Prime Minister and if he can, whether the office is still worth holding. First there is the culmination of weeks of feverish campaigning to contain a Labour Party rebellion over his plan to increase university budgets by making students pay more. A defeat on this bill would mean a central plank of Blair's push to rejuvenate British education would stand rejected by his own M.P.s. Then there is the expected release of a long-awaited report on the suicide of David Kelly, the weapons scientist who was caught in a row between Downing Street and the BBC over whether Blair oversold the case for war in Iraq. A direct finding that Blair lied when he denied any role in "outing" Kelly to reporters would put the P.M.'s job in serious jeopardy. Two-thirds of the public think Blair should resign if the report declares him a liar, according to a poll by ICM Research.

How could Blair's fortunes have fallen so far? The main problem is the failure to find illegal weapons in Iraq, which Blair stressed as the only legal justification for a war that his M.P.s found dubious. Another problem is the surprising force of Old Labour, the party members who stress social justice over technocratic reform and have grown impatient with Blair's affection for the private sector. They rebelled last year over injecting more private money and control into hospitals, and have drawn the line at Blair's plan to require tuition fees of up to $5,500 per year. Their complaints go beyond policy, however; some Labor M.P.s want to signal deep frustration that Downing Street policy wonks do not consult them enough before uncorking big bills. "There's been too much policy by laptop," says James Purnell, a former Downing Street wonk who is now an M.P.

But Blair has never been one to wait for blows to land. In speeches and on TV and radio, he has hammered home the virtues of his tuition bill, and aides are planning a blitz of new initiatives on health, crime and transportation. If Blair emerges relatively unscathed from the David Kelly report and ekes out even a narrow victory on tuition fees, he could climb back. "People don't want wishy-washy Prime Ministers," says Nick Sparrow, managing director of ICM. "In six months, if they think Blair stuck to what he believes in, a narrow victory could do him good."