For a Winner, Follow the Money

Long before Australians knew the date of the federal election, they were betting on its outcome. Centrebet, one of the country's biggest bookmakers, had taken $300,000 in wagers by Aug. 27; another $30,000 came in last weekend. Expat Justin Wolfers, a professor of business at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, has a special interest in where the money is going. That's not just because he's backed Labor - currently at around $2.30, which he says reflects a 38% probability of victory. Wolfers believes that by the end of the campaign betting prices will reveal, more accurately than opinion polls, which...