High On Gals In Good-Ole-Boy Country

With the announcement by South Carolina's seven-term Democratic Senator Ernest Hollings that he will not run for re-election next year, Democrats are facing up to a truly chilling prospect: after the 2004 elections, the party could conceivably hold only 4 of 22 seats in the once solidly Democratic South. "The region with the best opportunities for our team is in the South," says Senator George Allen, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Democrats now hold only nine Senate seats in the South, and Republicans are hoping for a major strike that will take five of them. The G.O.P. believes two easy pick-offs will be the seats of Hollings in South Carolina, the most Republican state in the region, and of retiring Democrat Zell Miller in Georgia. John Edwards, who faces a backlash from North Carolinians angry he's ignoring the state to run for President, could face a tough fight if he tries to retain his Senate seat in 2004. Another presidential hopeful, Bob Graham, may not seek a fourth Senate term in Florida. And Louisiana's John Breaux has not yet decided whether he will run for a fourth term.

But the Democrats' best hope to avoid disaster in good-ole-boy country may be a relatively new weapon: female candidates. South Carolina education superintendent Inez Tenenbaum announced last week that she will run for Hollings' seat, and party leaders think she has a good chance to win. She would join a tiny but growing club of female Democrats filling the South's Senate seats: Blanche Lincoln, elected in 1998 from Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu, re-elected to her Louisiana seat last December. With most white males voting Republican these days, female candidates can put together winning coalitions of women and minority voters. Says Emory University political-science professor Merle Black: "It's going to be harder for white male Democrats to win."